02 — Identify Critical Assumptions

Purpose: Use Swift CNS AI to identify critical assumptions that must be validated

Outcome: Have a prioritized list of critical assumptions documented in Swift CNS

Audience: PM / Dev / Both

Time: 30-60 minutes (guided by AI)

Prerequisites: 01 — Idea / Problem - Chat started in Swift CNS

Learning Outcomes

By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

  1. Use Swift CNS AI to identify assumptions about your solution

  2. Distinguish between critical and non-critical assumptions

  3. Prioritize assumptions by risk and impact in Swift CNS

  4. Understand how assumptions are categorized in Swift CNS

  5. Prepare assumptions for hypothesis formation in Swift CNS

Jobs-to-Be-Done

  • When: I have started a chat in Swift CNS and the AI has analyzed my idea

  • I want: To use Swift CNS to identify what must be true for my solution to work

  • So that: I can focus on validating the riskiest assumptions first

Inputs

  • Active chat in Swift CNS from 01 — Idea / Problem

  • AI analysis of your idea

  • Understanding of your proposed solution

Activities

1. Continue the Chat Conversation

In Swift CNS:

  1. Return to your chat conversation (if not already there)

  2. The AI will guide you through the Assumptions Mapping step

  3. Follow the AI's prompts and questions

What the AI Will Do:

  • Ask about your proposed solution

  • Help you identify what you're assuming

  • Categorize assumptions (user, technical, business, value)

  • Identify which assumptions are critical

💡 Tip: Be honest with the AI about your assumptions. It helps identify what needs validation.

2. Identify All Assumptions

The AI Will Guide You Through:

  • User Assumptions: About users' needs, behaviors, preferences

    • Example: "Users will use an AI-powered retrospective tool"

  • Technical Assumptions: About what's possible to build

    • Example: "We can build AI that generates useful insights"

  • Business Assumptions: About market, pricing, competition

    • Example: "Users will pay $10/month for this tool"

  • Value Assumptions: About the value proposition

    • Example: "Users will find AI-generated insights valuable"

How to Answer:

  • Be comprehensive - list everything you're assuming

  • Don't filter yet - the AI will help prioritize

  • Be specific - avoid vague assumptions

3. Identify Critical Assumptions

The AI Will Help You Identify:

  • Critical Assumptions: Those that, if false, would invalidate the solution

  • High Risk: Uncertainty is high

  • High Impact: Affects the entire value proposition

Questions the AI May Ask:

  • "If this assumption is false, does the product fail?"

  • "How confident are you about this assumption?"

  • "What evidence do you have for this assumption?"

4. Prioritize Assumptions

The AI Will Help You Prioritize:

  • High Risk / High Impact → Critical (test first)

  • High Risk / Low Impact → Test if time allows

  • Low Risk / High Impact → Monitor

  • Low Risk / Low Impact → Track but don't prioritize

In Swift CNS:

  • The AI will help you organize assumptions

  • You'll see them categorized and prioritized

  • Focus on the top 5-10 critical assumptions

5. Review Assumptions

After AI Analysis:

  1. Review the assumptions list generated by the AI

  2. Verify they're accurate

  3. Add any assumptions the AI might have missed

  4. Confirm priorities are correct

Your Assumptions Will Be:

  • Documented in the chat conversation

  • Categorized by type

  • Prioritized by risk and impact

  • Ready for hypothesis formation

Apply It Now

Task: Use Swift CNS to identify your critical assumptions

  1. Continue your chat conversation in Swift CNS

  2. Follow the AI's prompts about assumptions

  3. List all assumptions (user, technical, business, value)

  4. Work with the AI to identify critical assumptions

  5. Review and prioritize assumptions by risk and impact

  6. Document the top 5-10 critical assumptions

Artifact: A prioritized assumptions list in Swift CNS with:

  • All assumptions listed

  • Critical assumptions identified

  • Risk and impact assessment

  • Priority ranking

Artifacts

You'll create in Swift CNS:

  • Assumptions list in chat conversation

  • Critical assumptions identified

  • Risk and impact assessment

  • Prioritized assumptions list

Worked Example

Situation: Identifying assumptions for retrospective tool in Swift CNS

Chat Conversation:

AI: "Now let's identify the assumptions you're making about your solution. 
What do you assume about users?"

You: "I assume engineering teams will use an AI-powered retrospective tool."

AI: "That's a user assumption. Is this critical? If teams don't use it, 
does the product fail?"

You: "Yes, absolutely. If teams don't use it, the product fails."

AI: "Then this is a critical assumption. Let's categorize it as high risk, 
high impact. What else are you assuming?"

Result in Swift CNS:

  • Assumption 1: Teams will use an AI-powered retrospective tool

    • Category: User

    • Risk: High

    • Impact: High

    • Status: Critical ✓

  • Assumption 2: We can build AI that generates useful insights

    • Category: Technical

    • Risk: High

    • Impact: High

    • Status: Critical ✓

  • Assumption 3: Users will pay $10/month

    • Category: Business

    • Risk: Medium

    • Impact: High

    • Status: Important (not critical)

Checklist

Before proceeding to the next chapter, verify:

Self-Assessment

  1. What does Swift CNS AI help you identify? (Select all)

  2. What makes an assumption critical? (Select all)

  3. How should you prioritize assumptions?

Exit Criteria

You're ready to proceed when:

Dependencies & Next Steps

Prerequisites Completed

  • 01 — Idea / Problem - Chat started in Swift CNS

Next Steps

  • Continue the chat conversation in Swift CNS

  • The AI will guide you through 03 — Form Testable Hypotheses

  • Follow the AI's prompts to convert assumptions to hypotheses

What This Enables

Identifying critical assumptions in Swift CNS enables:

  • Focused validation efforts

  • AI-guided hypothesis formation

  • Efficient experiment design

  • Systematic risk mitigation


💡 Tip: Trust the AI's guidance. It's designed to help you think systematically about assumptions. 📝 Note: You can always add more assumptions later if you think of them.

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