03 — Form Testable Hypotheses

Purpose: Use Swift CNS AI to convert critical assumptions into testable hypotheses

Outcome: Have clear, measurable hypotheses ready for experimentation in Swift CNS

Audience: PM / Dev / Both

Time: 30-60 minutes (guided by AI)

Prerequisites: 02 — Identify Critical Assumptions - Assumptions identified in Swift CNS

Learning Outcomes

By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

1. Use Swift CNS AI to convert assumptions into testable hypotheses

2. Use the hypothesis format: "We believe... If... Then... We'll know..."

3. Define measurable success criteria in Swift CNS

4. Prioritize hypotheses for testing

5. Prepare hypotheses for experiment design in Swift CNS

Jobs-to-Be-Done

• When: I have a list of critical assumptions in Swift CNS

• I want: To convert them into testable hypotheses with the AI's help

• So that: I can design experiments to validate or invalidate them

Inputs

• Active chat in Swift CNS with critical assumptions identified

• Understanding of what you want to learn

• Success criteria for validation

Activities

1. Continue the Chat Conversation

In Swift CNS:

1. Continue your chat conversation

2. The AI will guide you through converting assumptions to hypotheses

3. Follow the AI's prompts and questions

What the AI Will Do:

• Help you convert assumptions to hypotheses

• Ensure hypotheses use the correct format

• Help define success criteria

• Prioritize hypotheses for testing

2. Convert Assumptions to Hypotheses

The AI Will Help You Use This Format:

We believe [assumption].
If [condition],
Then [outcome].
We'll know this is true when [metric].

Example Conversion:

Assumption: Teams will use an AI-powered retrospective tool

AI: "Let's convert this to a testable hypothesis. What condition would you create?"

You: "If we create a landing page with mockups..."

AI: "Good. What outcome do you expect?"

You: "Then at least 30% of visitors will sign up for early access."

AI: "Perfect. How will you measure this?"

You: "We'll know this is true when we see 30%+ conversion rate after 100 visitors."

Result in Swift CNS:

Hypothesis: We believe teams will use an AI-powered retrospective tool. 
If we create a landing page with mockups, 
then at least 30% of visitors will sign up for early access. 
We'll know this is true when we see 30%+ conversion rate after 100 visitors.

3. Define Success Criteria

The AI Will Help You Define:

• Metric: What you'll measure

• Threshold: What success looks like

• Timeline: When you'll measure

• Sample Size: How many users/data points needed

Example:

Metric: Signup conversion rate
Threshold: 30% or higher
Timeline: After 100 visitors
Sample Size: 100 visitors minimum

4. Prioritize Hypotheses

The AI Will Help You Prioritize By:

• Risk: How risky is the assumption?

• Impact: How much does it matter?

• Testability: How easy is it to test?

• Dependencies: Does it depend on other hypotheses?

In Swift CNS:

• The AI will help you organize hypotheses

• You'll see them prioritized

• Focus on the top 3-5 hypotheses first

5. Review Hypotheses

After AI Analysis:

1. Review the hypotheses generated by the AI

2. Verify they're testable and measurable

3. Confirm success criteria are realistic

4. Ensure priorities make sense

Your Hypotheses Will Be:

• Documented in the chat conversation

• Formatted correctly

• Success criteria defined

• Prioritized for testing

Apply It Now

Task: Use Swift CNS to create testable hypotheses

1. Continue your chat conversation in Swift CNS

2. Work with the AI to convert assumptions to hypotheses

3. Use the correct hypothesis format

4. Define success criteria (metric, threshold, timeline, sample size)

5. Prioritize hypotheses by risk, impact, and testability

6. Review and confirm your top 3-5 hypotheses

Artifact: Testable hypotheses in Swift CNS with:

• Hypothesis statements in correct format

• Success criteria defined

• Priority ranking

• Ready for experiment design

Artifacts

You'll create in Swift CNS:

• Testable hypotheses in chat conversation

• Success criteria definitions

• Prioritized hypothesis list

Worked Example

Situation: Creating hypotheses for retrospective tool in Swift CNS

Chat Conversation:

AI: "Let's convert your critical assumption about teams using the tool 
into a testable hypothesis. What format should we use?"

You: "We believe teams will use an AI-powered retrospective tool."

AI: "Good. Now, what condition would you create to test this?"

You: "If we create a landing page with mockups..."

AI: "What outcome do you expect?"

You: "Then at least 30% of visitors will sign up for early access."

AI: "How will you measure this?"

You: "We'll know this is true when we see 30%+ conversion rate 
after 100 visitors."

AI: "Perfect! Now let's define success criteria. What's your metric?"

You: "Signup conversion rate"

AI: "What's your threshold for success?"

You: "30% or higher"

AI: "What sample size do you need?"

You: "100 visitors minimum"

Result in Swift CNS:

Hypothesis 1 (Top Priority):
We believe teams will use an AI-powered retrospective tool. 
If we create a landing page with mockups, 
then at least 30% of visitors will sign up for early access. 
We'll know this is true when we see 30%+ conversion rate after 100 visitors.

Success Criteria:
- Metric: Signup conversion rate
- Threshold: 30% or higher
- Timeline: After 100 visitors
- Sample Size: 100 visitors minimum
- Priority: High (top priority)

Checklist

Before proceeding to the next chapter, verify:

• You've converted critical assumptions to hypotheses

• Hypotheses use the correct format

• Success criteria are defined for each hypothesis

• Hypotheses are prioritized

• Top 3-5 hypotheses are documented in Swift CNS

Self-Assessment

1. What is the correct hypothesis format?

   • We believe X. If Y. Then Z. We'll know when W. ✓

   • If X, then Y

   • We believe X

2. What should success criteria include? (Select all)

   • Metric ✓

   • Threshold ✓

   • Timeline ✓

   • Sample Size ✓

3. How should you prioritize hypotheses? (Select all)

   • By risk ✓

   • By impact ✓

   • By testability ✓

   • By ease of testing

Exit Criteria

You're ready to proceed when:

• Critical assumptions are converted to hypotheses

• Hypotheses use the correct format

• Success criteria are defined

• Hypotheses are prioritized

• The AI is ready to guide you through experiment design

Dependencies & Next Steps

Prerequisites Completed

• 02 — Identify Critical Assumptions - Critical assumptions identified in Swift CNS

Next Steps

• Continue the chat conversation in Swift CNS

• The AI will guide you through 04 — Design & Run Experiments

• Follow the AI's prompts to design experiments

What This Enables

Testable hypotheses in Swift CNS enable:

• AI-guided experiment design

• Clear experiment goals

• Measurable outcomes

• Efficient validation

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💡 Tip: Make hypotheses specific. Vague hypotheses lead to unclear experiments. 📝 Note: The AI will help you refine hypotheses if needed. Don't worry about perfection.